After a long run — a very long run — of weak figures, there was finally some good news for UK retail this week. The latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey showed a sharp turnaround in performance with more retailers reporting sales rises than sales falls.

It came as the weather improved later in the month and selling price inflation in the retail sector eased considerably, to its lowest since August 2020.

And looking ahead, while retailers expect sales to fall slightly next month, they should remain broadly in line with seasonal norms.

The CBI report doesn’t tell us exactly how much was sold either by value or by volume. Instead it’s a long-running survey that gives us a weighted balance of retailers that say their sales rose or fell to whatever degree.

This time, the weighted balance of those seeing rising sales was +8%, a big change from the -44% last month and the most positive figure since December 2022 when the positivity was all about recovering from the pandemic. The prediction for June came in at -4%.

Sales may only have been seen as “average” for the time of year (+2%), but it was the firmest outturn in eight months.

As mentioned, selling price inflation eased considerably (+20% vs a scary +54% back in February) and it’s now at its lowest since August 2020.

But after a devastating two years for the sector that have dented retailer profits, it’s no surprise that retail employment continued to decline for the seventh consecutive quarter (-26%). Headcount in retail is expected to continue to contract next month, but at a more moderate pace (-18%). Retailers’ investment intentions for the year ahead have also deteriorated (-25%, from -9% in February).

Retailers are broadly neutral about their business situation over the coming quarter (+2% from +6% in February), after having been slightly more optimistic over the last couple of surveys.

Alpesh Paleja, CBI Lead Economist, said: “May’s increase in retail sales adds to the swathe of data pointing to an improvement in activity over the near-term. Falling inflation, and continuing real wage growth will contribute to a healthier consumer outlook, in turn supporting the retail sector further.

“That being said, retailers are restrained about their business situation over the coming quarter. Headlines sales are expected to fall moderately next month, and it’s concerning that retailers’ investment intentions have deteriorated noticeably.

“The mixed mood from our survey demonstrates just how nascent the economic recovery is. All parties should use this general election campaign to embrace policies which will embed sustainable growth, foster the investment we need to develop a labour market which delivers higher living standards, and to accelerate our transition to net zero.”