UK consumer confidence stalled in March, but at least it wasn’t as bad as February’s dip even if it couldn’t match those surprise gains made across the previous three winter months.

So has the improving confidence trend come to a halt or does the encouraging score on personal finances point to a bright way forward? 

That’s the question data company GfK asks as its long-running headline Consumer Confidence Index remained unchanged at -21 this month after a two-point dip last month. The wider index showed three measures were up and two were down.

Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director GfK, says: “The improved Personal Finance measure (for the next 12 months) at +2 [month on month] is encouraging because it’s the first positive and the highest score since December 2021.

“This is welcome news given the challenges faced by Britons of fiscal drag, higher costs for fuel, rising council taxes and utilities eroding any increases in wages or other income.” 

However, GfK still wondered if there was “note of worry” this month? 

“Look back to last year and it’s clear the improvements in consumer confidence seen most months since January 2023 have vanished.  Moreover, this month the Major Purchase Index has dropped two points, the view of the wider economy over the past year is down and the Savings Index has dived four points. 

“Are we temporarily on pause, or are consumers about to press ‘reverse’? In the run-up to the next UK General Election, these are important questions for the future health of the economy.”

Specifically, the index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year is up one point at -13 month on month, some 13 points better than March 2023. The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months, as mentioned, is up two points on the month at +2, which is 23 points higher than this time last year. 

The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is down two points at -45, or 17 points higher than in March 2023.  And expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months have increased by one point to -23, again 17 points better than March 2023.

The Major Purchase Index is down two points to -27, but remains six points higher than this month last year. 

Finally, the Savings Index fell four points to +25 in March, but is still four points higher than this time last year.