After last week’s jobs week, everything gets more intriguing as each month passes. The labor market has gotten softer but hasn’t broken yet. As we approach the midway point of the year, let’s examine last week’s data. 10-year yield and mortgage rates Last week, the labor data, a vital driver of the 10-year yield and [...]read moreHow much longer will we have to deal with higher mortgage rates?
The mortgage rate lockdown premise holds that very few people will list their homes when mortgage rates are this high, thus suppressing inventory. But 2024 has proven that theory wrong. 2024 has had healthy inventory growth despite mortgage rates above 7%. Also, for the third time this year, I have hit my target of weekly inventory [...]read more2024 inventory growth challenges mortgage rate lockdown
Traditionally speaking, the spreads between the 10-year and mortgage rates is 1.60%-1.80%. Right now, the difference between them is 2.60%. However, compare that to the worst levels last year, when the spread got as high as 3.10%. That’s a 0.50% difference in rates. For the rest of the year, it’s all about the labor market. [...]read moreAre mortgage rates about to fall?
My model for inventory growth with higher mortgage rates came crashing down last week. After two weeks of significant increases, inventory growth slowed dramatically and is far from my 11,000-17,000 growth model with mortgage rates over 7.25%. Did the recent dip in mortgage rates play a role here or is this the average choppy weekly [...]read moreDid lower mortgage rates slow housing inventory growth?
Active weekly housing inventory growth slowed slightly last week, but it’s still running at a healthier clip than in 2023. I have a simple model with mortgage rates being above 7.25%: weekly inventory data should grow between 11,000-17,000 per week. Last year, we never hit that target. We have now seen it for two weeks [...]read moreSpring housing market gets more inventory
Weekly housing inventory data Higher mortgage rates with duration will likely lead to higher inventory, which we have seen repeatedly for the past 10 years. However, 2023 tested my model as the inventory growth rate on a week-to-week basis was slow, even when rates headed toward 8%. It’s a simple model: inventory should grow between [...]read moreFinally, some healthy housing inventory growth
10-year yield and mortgage rates There is nothing good to report on mortgage rates from last week. The chart below shows that we broke the critical technical level on the 10-year yield (marked with a red line). The CPI data, which the Federal Reserve doesn’t track for its 2% target, came in 0.1% hotter than [...]read moreWill a wider war in the Middle East push mortgage rates higher or lower?
Weekly housing inventory data Active inventory still needs to be faster for my taste. My model has active inventory growing at least 11,000-17,000 every week with higher rates. This model was based on rates over 7.25%, but even when mortgage rates headed toward 8% last year, we didn’t see that kind of growth in inventory. [...]read moreHousing inventory fell last week, but it won’t derail the spring bump
Weekly housing inventory data Now that we are right in the middle of the spring buying season, my inventory model is simple: with higher mortgage rates, just like last year, we should be able to grow weekly active inventory between 11,000 – 17,000 on some weeks. Unfortunately, I batted a whopping zero last year since [...]read moreWeekly active inventory growth still too slow
Mortgage rates had a chance to break to new highs this year, but the Federal Reserve took a moderate tone at the last Fed meeting. We saw the benefit of lower mortgage rates with the last two existing home sales reports, which showed growth. Then mortgage rates rose, facilitating five weeks of negative purchase application [...]read moreMortgage rates helped by the Fed’s moderate stance