We’ve heard a lot about how UK retail sales went (or more accurately, didn’t go) in December. But now the first report for January has come through. So is there any better news? Unfortunately no.

The CBI’s regular monthly report has been released and the headline story is that “retail sales fell in the year to January at the sharpest pace in three years… This month’s decline extends a downturn in sales that stretches back to April 2023”.

Looking ahead, “the slump in retail sales is expected to continue at the same rapid pace next month”.

The weighted balance of retail sales this time was -50% from -32% in the year to December with -50% also expected for February.

That weighted balance isn’t a specific sales figure, it reflects the percentage of retailers seeing sales year-on-year falls to a greater or lesser degree compared to those that didn’t.

The CBI said retailers continued to see sales as poor for the time of year in January, with volumes falling short of seasonal norms to the greatest extent since May 2020 (-47% from -25% in December). They expect sales to disappoint — although less so — next month (-31%).

Retailers also continued to see stocks as “too high” relative to expected sales in January (+15% from +10% in December).

By sector, most clothing stores specifically saw volume declines (-86%), although that was at least marginally better than the -93% of December.

The survey also showed that internet sales volumes declined in the year to January at a quicker rate than in December (-54% from -41% previously) and online sales are expected to drop by 52% in February.

Martin Sartorius, CBI Principal Economist, said: “Retailers reported a further deterioration in activity at the start of 2024. Year-on-year sales volumes fell at the fastest pace since the pandemic. Looking ahead, demand conditions in the sector will remain challenging as higher interest rates continue to feed through to mortgage payments and household incomes. Against this difficult backdrop, the forthcoming hike in business rates, together with a rise in the National Living Wage, will come as a significant blow to many retailers at a time when firms are least capable of bearing the burden of higher costs.”